A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
